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Any formulation for predicting human survival will invite controversy. This booklet presents a different research of the possibilities of human survivability within the brief and long-term. It develops a formulation for survival in accordance with 4 separate measures.
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Additional resources for Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive (Springer Praxis Books Popular Science)
If the delivery had taken less time, say an 16 Formulation [Ch. 1 Figure 3. Survival of a sample of radioactive ®cticium having four isotopes. Underground Isotope Production Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This schematic view shows a proton beam striking a target to make radioisotopes. The target carrier, a steel box, is surrounded by concrete. A lift in the vertical shaft carries the target into a hot cell above ground where an operator can manipulate the fresh isotopes without exposure to radiation.
An actual statistical ensemble is always ®nite, as is its mean, even if the sample is a million as in the last column of the table. If there are a million humanoid species in our galaxy, there is no danger that their mean future will actually be eternal. Moreover, Appendix C shows that the formula for the mean is just on the verge of convergence. Any slight trend toward obsolescence or any gradual decline in vitality, however small, tips the balance to a ®nite mean. Such aging processes are probably always present in small ways that we do not know how to formulate.
Four approaches may seem excessive, but the math is vague Introduction 7 in some places (fuzzy, as mathematicians often say), and the strengths of one argument compensate weaknesses in another. One of these approaches has an abstract quality that seems almost unreal because it mentions nothing about hazards, risk rates, or causality. Instead, it is all about the moment we observe the entity in question and when that moment occurs during its life span. Nevertheless, it produces almost the same formula as the other approaches and provides valuable insight for generalizing the basic theory.